An anonymous Bitcoin prediction initially published on 4chan made the headlines for being accurate with the first two out of six price targets. Even though it failed with the next two targets and disappointed believers, the crypto community is still electrified by bullish predictions for 2020.
An Anonymous Prediction Almost Did It
Technical analysis and fundamentals allow experienced traders and analysts to anticipate the subsequent price moves. However, even the most brilliant minds can’t guarantee that a price would follow certain levels, especially in the long run.
At the beginning of last year, the crypto community screenshot the forecast made in an anonymous post on 4chan. That post turned into a meme after it managed to accurately predict the price in the first two instances. Even some technical analysts were baffled by it.
The post, published on January 21, 2019, argued that the Bitcoin price had bottomed out on December 15, 2018, when it traded below $3,200. The “oracle” gave the following predictions for Bitcoin:
- April 2019 – about $5,300
- July 2019 – about $9,200
- October 2019 – about $16,000
- February 2020 – $29,000
- July 2020 – $56,000
- November 2020 – $87,00 (though he probably meant $87,000)
“This will be a 1.5 trillion market cap,” the author added. “The charts never lie,” he confidently claimed.
Indeed, Bitcoin has never traded below $3,200 since December 15, 2018. Moreover, the oldest cryptocurrency traded at around $5,300 in mid-April 2019 and displayed a price of about $9,400 at the end of July 2019 – just like the forecast suggested.
However, it was probably too good to be true. The next predictions failed to materialize. In October, Bitcoin was trading at about $8,500, while in February 2020 it broke above $10,000 before crashing during the pandemic shock.
Nevertheless, in November 2019, after the first failure, Binance CEO Changpeng Zao himself gave credit to the forecast, saying that the $16,000 level would come soon.
Lol, price predictions are easy. It’s just hard to be right about the timing. We will see $16k soon-ish. 1.4 billion people working on it as we speak. https://t.co/mf9hKpP6Js
— CZ Binance 🔶🔶🔶 (@cz_binance) November 1, 2019
You Should Not Blindly Trust Bitcoin Predictions
For others, the failed prediction was a lesson to avoid blindly following all kinds of price forecasts, especially if they impose themselves as very promising.
A Twitter commentator compared that meme with the current frenzy around the Bitcoin price predictions for 2020, probably hinting to the stock-to-flow model that points to a post-halving surge.
Good news! $55k this month, right?
Remember when 80% of CT put all their faith in anonymous 4chan post?
Yet, somehow in 2020 the world found a way to get even crazier then that. pic.twitter.com/xl2MmfIrCC
— Mr. Anderson (@TrueCrypto28) July 2, 2020
All in all, the only sure thing is that Bitcoin is here to stay, and its adoption will continue.